New Rochelle’s Black Swan Event

A Black Swan is an event that is complete surprise, a major impact, and in hindsight, rationalized as could have been avoided. New Rochelle had a whole flock of black swans descend upon our city. We made headlines internationally and will be linked to the COVID-19 pandemic for the foreseeable future. As we look to keep our neighbors and essential workers safe in these times, on top of everyone’s mind is when will we start moving forward as the NY PAUSE is lifted and what does the “new normal” look like. With other pandemics and other inflection points as our guide, we can clearly see that things will be different, including New Rochelle’s downtown revitalization.

If you watch the President, Governor Cuomo, or Mayor De Blasio’s briefings, they all discuss “the modeling.” The model says this, the model projects that. Models, including the models used to project development demand, try to predict the future based on a known list of assumptions. Assumptions based on previous events and expert opinion. Assumptions that didn’t include an event worse than the 2008 recession. With any model, without the correct assumptions, the model can’t predict the future. The previous assumptions of development demand should be thrown out the window. We are looking at a post-pandemic world where very few individuals know what the other side will look like. Every single individual, family, business, school and government will have to throw out their plans as no one can predict how long this will last and how deep the economic downturn will be.

There is hope.

New Rochelle can choose to continue the path laid out in the previous models and studies; OR, take a hard look at a new long-term vision of our city. Should we adjust the plan in the face of a new reality? The simple answer is YES! There are too many unanswered, fundamental questions on both the supply and demand for new construction.

• How do we protect construction workers, laborers, drivers, and others from getting sick on the job site?
• Will marketing the proximity to NYC be a selling point to young professionals working from home more often? Will young professionals perfer a single-family home with a dedicated home office versus a 2 bedroom condo?
• Will homes and apartments with amenities become more attractive to families social distancing from crowds?
• Does our infrastructure, electricity, sewers, and transportation needs change as more people stay home during the day and not commute via MetroNorth or the Beeline?

With these outstanding questions and more, New Rochelle could proceed the same course, or adapt to the new shifting priorities, reopen the plan and reengage the community on what is truly needed for the future. Simply put, the development models used to predict the demand for apartments and condos will need to be updated; the development plan based on the models will need to be redrawn; and, the community will need to be involved in any changes to the plan.

Let’s continue to be a model city in a COVID world.